Former diplomat and noted author Vikas Swarup has offered a pointed explanation for why US President Donald Trump recently imposed steep tariffs on Indian goods. According to him, the move is not merely about trade imbalances but is deeply intertwined with geopolitical grievances, personal ambitions, and emerging financial links between Washington and Islamabad.
Three Main Reasons Behind the Tariffs
1. BRICS Mistrust
Swarup believes that Trump sees the BRICS group—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—as an anti-American alliance bent on challenging the dominance of the US dollar. India’s continued participation in BRICS, and its involvement in discussions about creating alternative financial systems, has reportedly irritated the US President. In Trump’s eyes, India’s membership strengthens a bloc that could threaten US economic leadership, making it a political and symbolic sore point.
2. The Mediation Credit Dispute
The second factor, according to Swarup, is personal. After the May 2025 military confrontation between India and Pakistan, Trump repeatedly claimed that his behind-the-scenes efforts had prevented the conflict from escalating into a nuclear exchange. While Pakistan publicly thanked him and even nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize, India firmly denied that any external mediation occurred, maintaining that the ceasefire was negotiated directly between the two militaries. Trump, Swarup says, is miffed by this refusal to acknowledge his role—especially given his long-standing desire to be recognised as a global peacemaker.
3. Pakistan’s Crypto Connections
Swarup also points to financial interests as a driving force. In recent months, Pakistan has pitched itself as a future hub for cryptocurrency and bitcoin mining. A high-profile cryptocurrency venture, reportedly linked to Trump’s associates and even his family through World Liberty Financial, signed an agreement with Pakistan’s crypto council. These ties, Swarup suggests, have given Pakistan unusual access in Washington and created an incentive for the Trump administration to maintain warmer relations with Islamabad, even at the expense of pressuring India.
The Tariffs and Their Impact
In July 2025, Trump announced a 25% tariff on several Indian goods, followed shortly by an additional 25% penalty, effectively doubling the duty on affected imports. The second round was tied to India’s purchase of Russian oil—part of Washington’s broader effort to punish countries trading with Moscow amid the ongoing Ukraine war.
Swarup warns that while these tariffs might bring in revenue for the US treasury, they will ultimately raise prices for American consumers and fuel domestic inflation. He also emphasises that India must not bow to such pressure, especially over US demands for greater access to India’s agriculture, dairy, and genetically modified crop markets.
A Broader Geopolitical Play
Swarup frames the tariffs as part of a larger pressure strategy—both to gain leverage over India in trade talks and to send signals to Russia ahead of Trump’s planned meeting with Vladimir Putin in Alaska. This comes as Pakistan enjoys increased engagement with the US, helped by its crypto ventures and by lobbying efforts in Washington.
At the same time, tensions between India and Pakistan have sharpened following India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty in retaliation for the Pahalgam terror attack. Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, has responded with nuclear threats, which Swarup interprets as Islamabad’s attempt to provoke external mediation.
Short-Term Turbulence, Long-Term Stability
Despite the current friction, Swarup maintains that US–India relations are fundamentally strategic, not transactional like Washington’s ties with Pakistan. He describes the present strain as “a storm, not a rupture,” predicting that the relationship will weather this phase.
He also criticises Trump’s approach as a strategic mistake, pointing out that Pakistan remains closely aligned with China—America’s main global rival. Aligning too closely with Islamabad, he warns, risks undermining US strategic objectives in Asia.
India’s Firm Stand
India, Swarup says, has rightly refused to compromise its strategic autonomy—a principle central to its foreign policy since the 1950s. Giving in to Trump’s demands, he argues, would only embolden further pressure. The current approach, he insists, is to hold firm, diversify trade options, and wait for the political storm to pass.
In essence, Swarup paints a picture of tariffs that are less about economics and more about politics, ego, and money flows. While the immediate costs for India’s exporters may be high, he believes the long-term partnership between New Delhi and Washington will endure—once the personal grievances and tactical manoeuvres run their course.
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